Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2236

   Mesoscale Discussion 2236
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0455 PM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026

   Areas affected...portions of southeastern Virginia into far
   northeastern North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 653...654...

   Valid 042155Z - 042300Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 653, 654
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A corridor of locally greater damaging/severe wind gust
   risk may exist across far southeastern Virginia and far northeastern
   North Carolina over the next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery depicts scattered thunderstorms
   ongoing across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, with several reports of
   wind damage and an isolated instance of severe hail noted over the
   past hour in association with a cluster of storms located in the
   vicinity of Richmond, VA. Latest objective analysis and surface
   observations indicate the air mass ahead of this cluster remains
   relatively undisturbed, with moderate to strong buoyancy and steep
   low-level lapse rates in place. 30-40 kts of effective shear will
   continue to support a mix of transient supercell structures and
   linear clusters, which is also supported by recent HRRR/RRFS runs.
   Thus, a localized corridor of greater damaging/severe wind gust
   potential is likely to exist across this area over the next 1-2
   hours.

   ..Chalmers.. 09/04/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...

   LAT...LON   37337653 37017628 36757628 36627644 36487683 36447753
               36547794 36747818 36977831 37217820 37467781 37617742
               37657706 37537677 37337653 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN