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Mesoscale Discussion 2226 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026 Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 649...652... Valid 040313Z - 040445Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 649, 652 continues. SUMMARY...Multiple areas of strong-to-severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds will continue this evening and into the overnight hours. DISCUSSION...Multiple clusters of strong-to-severe thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of the Mid-Atlantic this evening and should continue into the overnight. One such cluster is the remnants of a small bowing segment that moved southeast out of Pennsylvania and is currently approaching Baltimore, MD. Another, larger cluster, is stretched along a line from easter West Virginia, northern Virginia, and parts of Maryland and moving south-southeast. A third area extends northwest to southeast from northern Virginia toward southern Chesapeake Bay area. The environment across the region remains unstable with MUCAPE ranging from 2000-3000 J/kg with deep-layer shear around 35 knots, which will be more than sufficient to sustain thunderstorms into the overnight hours. Additionally, despite low-level lapse rates being weaker than during the afternoon/evening, DCAPE values around 1000-1200 J/kg will be more than sufficient for damaging outflow winds and perhaps a couple damaging downbursts. At present the most likely corridor of damaging wind potential looks to be along and ahead of the linear MCS moving south-southeast across northern Virginia. This region looks to remain west of the developing warm-air advection showers, is largely undisturbed by previous convection, and lies ahead of a sufficiently organized MCS that has a history of producing wind damage. A southwestward extension of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #652 may be necessary. ..Marsh.. 09/04/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 39038024 39357981 39477860 39537696 39547622 39437532 39207461 39027436 38607438 38177464 37887538 37837660 38267846 38828000 39038024 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH