Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2223

   Mesoscale Discussion 2223
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0623 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026

   Areas affected...north-central Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 651...

   Valid 032323Z - 040100Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 651
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A local corridor of increasing damaging wind potential
   appears to be emerging across portions of north-central Minnesota.
   Widespread tree damage may be possible with these storms as they
   move east over the next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...A couple of intense thunderstorm cores have developed
   on the southern edge of a north-south line of thunderstorms. These
   southern most thunderstorms appear to be interacting with a
   west-to-east frontal zone/north-south temperature gradient centered
   around 700 mb. Recent 88D radial velocity data from the Duluth, MN,
   radar have shown a marked increase in velocities as these storms
   interact with the aforementioned temperature gradient. These
   thunderstorms are likely ingesting moderately unstable air front the
   south, with MUCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. However, instability
   quickly wanes with east/northeast extend as east/northeast winds
   across northeast Minnesota have maintained a cooler airmass off Lake
   Superior. That said, the degree of instability to the
   south/southwest of the ongoing thunderstorms and strong vertical
   shear will continue to support a damaging wind threat even into the
   increasingly hostile thermodynamic environment.

   ..Marsh.. 09/03/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...

   LAT...LON   47509424 47569398 47559344 47489284 47319277 47109287
               46969307 46979363 46979404 47249437 47509424 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN