Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2222

   Mesoscale Discussion 2222
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0543 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026

   Areas affected...portions of northern Ohio into far western
   Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 649...

   Valid 032243Z - 040015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 649
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for primarily damaging/severe wind gusts
   continues across portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 649.

   DISCUSSION...An ongoing MCS continues to persist across portions of
   northern Ohio as of 2240 UTC, with wind gusts of 60 and 62 mph
   recently measured in Cleveland/Elyria, OH, vicinity. Recent radar
   imagery from KCLE indicates that the system outflow has outpaced the
   deeper convective cores along the southwestern flank of the MCS but
   remains more co-located with the deeper updrafts farther to the
   northeast. However, the downstream environment across northeastern
   Ohio is characterized by cooler surface temperatures and increased
   static stability owing to the passage of prior convection, which is
   likely contributing to a weakening of this MCS as indicated by
   recent lightning trends. Thus, some uncertainty exists regarding the
   downstream intensity of convection, but at least some risk for
   primarily damaging/severe wind gusts is likely to persist downstream
   across portions of northern/eastern Ohio for at least another 1-2
   hours.

   ..Chalmers.. 09/03/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...

   LAT...LON   40638384 40788396 40928390 41008363 41048319 41278212
               41488139 41688112 41838100 41748080 41318043 40948032
               40578052 40248118 40218253 40518354 40638384 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN