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| Mesoscale Discussion 2217 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 2217 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026 Areas affected...Southeast Lower Michigan into northern Ohio Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 648...649... Valid 032002Z - 032200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 648, 649 continues. SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms will continue to organize and intensify as it crosses Lake Erie over the next 1-2 hours. The potential for severe wind along the lake shore should increase through this period. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery depicts steady cold pool consolidation within a organizing MCS across southeast Lower MI. Velocity imagery and surface observations have been sampling occasional wind gusts of 50-65 mph within the line as this strengthening has occurred. Downstream, temperatures have been steadily warming into the upper 80s and low 90s with MLCAPE values increasing into the 2000-3000 J/kg range - especially along the western lake shore. With elongated hodographs across the region (as sampled by regional VWPs), it seems likely that further organization/intensification of the line will occur over the next couple of hours. Wind gusts between 60-75 mph may become more common, including along the southern/eastern shores across northern OH where temperatures are rebounding into the upper 80s after the passage of a weak lake breeze. Based on recent storm tracks, the line should reach the greater Cleveland area within the next 1.5 to 2.5 hours. ..Moore.. 09/03/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 40968167 40758193 40718220 41578470 41728483 41888466 42338372 42738332 42868305 42898276 42218068 42008059 41818061 41408116 40968167 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN |
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