Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2216

   Mesoscale Discussion 2216
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1244 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026

   Areas affected...southern Lower Michigan...northern Ohio...northwest
   Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 031744Z - 032015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are likely to increase in coverage over Lower
   Michigan, eventually developing southeastward across Lake Erie and
   neighboring states. Corridors of damaging wind will be the primary
   risk.

   DISCUSSION...Strong destabilization has occurred over southern Lower
   MI south of warm front. Radar trends show an initial large cluster
   of storms anchored near this front, with additional echoes
   developing to the southwest. Given the position of the instability
   gradient and west/northwest flow aloft, these developing storms
   should move southeast/rightward into the afternoon.

   Sensors indicate robust precipitable water as well, with over 1.80"
   over Lower MI. This, along with steepening boundary layer lapse
   rates, will favor strong to severe outflow production downstream. As
   such, a watch may be needed soon.

   ..Jewell/Guyer.. 09/03/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   41738465 41938502 42448531 42818540 43128515 43588474
               43588431 42828127 42558039 42247989 41817968 41097957
               40737993 40868139 41068246 41738465 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN