Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2196

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2196
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   Mesoscale Discussion 2196
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0537 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026

   Areas affected...East-central WI into parts of Lower MI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 021037Z - 021230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms are possible through dawn.

   DISCUSSION...A long-lived MCS is moving across east-central WI early
   this morning. While there has been some tendency for warming cloud
   tops with this MCS, a 51 kt gust was recently noted from Appleton,
   WI (KATW), and low-level velocities remain vigorous from the KGRB
   radar. If this MCS can persist as it crosses Lake Michigan, it will
   begin to encounter somewhat richer low-level moisture and stronger
   buoyancy over lower MI, which may help to sustain at least an
   isolated wind-damage threat with this MCS through dawn. 

   Farther east, discrete cells to the north and northwest of Detroit
   have occasionally shown some signs of organization, within a
   favorable environment (MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and effective shear
   of 30-40 kt). The longevity of these cells may tend to be limited,
   though localized wind-damage and hail cannot be ruled out for as
   long as they persist. Later this morning, the favorable environment
   across central/eastern lower MI may allow for intensification of the
   upstream MCS, or else redevelopment of organized convection with the
   attendant MCV.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 09/02/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...GRB...MKX...

   LAT...LON   44738761 44718500 44588301 43058234 42668230 42678285
               43118462 43578631 43888823 44738761 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

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