Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2194

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2194
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Mesoscale Discussion 2194
MD 2194 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 2194
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0208 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026

   Areas affected...Southeast MN into west-central WI

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 641...

   Valid 020708Z - 020845Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 641
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A threat for severe gusts will continue through the early
   morning with an ongoing MCS.

   DISCUSSION...A compact but long-lived and well-organized MCS is
   moving across southeast MN early this morning. This MCS recently
   produced gusts of 60-70 mph in the Rochester, MN area, and
   relatively strong inbound velocities continue to be observed from
   the KARX radar. Given its current organization and favorable
   deep-layer shear noted from the KARX VWP, this MCS will likely
   continue to pose a short-term threat for severe gusts as it
   approaches west-central WI. With time, this MCS will begin to
   encounter a less favorable thermodynamic environment, as it moves
   into a region increasingly influenced by outflow from downstream
   convection. As a result, the longevity of severe-wind potential is
   uncertain, but at least some threat for wind damage with the ongoing
   MCS may eventually reach eastern portions of WW 641.

   ..Dean.. 09/02/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GRB...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   44439223 44549098 44489043 44179009 43929010 43649049
               43529106 43489156 43529238 43909221 44439223 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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