Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2193

   Mesoscale Discussion 2193
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1156 PM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026

   Areas affected...portions of southern MN into western WI

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 640...

   Valid 020456Z - 020700Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 640
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm clusters could continue to produce strong to
   severe wind gusts and hail into the overnight hours. A downstream
   watch into parts of southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin is
   uncertain, but a small downstream watch may be needed depending on
   storm trends.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms over southern MN has weakened some
   over the past 30-60 minutes as it has continued to lift northeast.
   With this storm motion, convection has shifted further away from the
   modest low-level jet oriented across IA, and northward into more
   modest instability and midlevel lapse rates. Most recent observed
   wind gusts have generally been in the 40-55 mph range, with 1.75
   inch hail reported nearly an hour ago. Overall convective
   organization has become more messy with time. Given overall
   environment, sporadic severe wind gusts or hail could persist into
   the overnight hours across southeast MN and perhaps west-central WI.
   Damaging wind potential could increase if the cluster can track more
   easterly near a surface boundary across southern MN. Depending on
   short term trends, a small downstream watch could become necessary,
   but remains uncertain.

   ..Leitman.. 09/02/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   43919524 44239508 44469362 44479226 44349118 44139021
               43858990 43638982 43449035 43379137 43379330 43319483
               43489522 43919524 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN