Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2189

   Mesoscale Discussion 2189
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0532 PM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026

   Areas affected...East-central/southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey
   into the DelMarVa

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 638...

   Valid 012232Z - 020000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 638
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A cluster of supercells may eventually grow upscale this
   evening. This will be the focus for the greatest damaging wind/large
   hail risk over the next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered convection in southeast Pennsylvania has some
   potential to congeal early this evening. The propagation of this
   cluster will likely be somewhat skewed to the west given the greater
   buoyancy present in south-central Pennsylvania. This activity will
   probably track towards the DelMarVa with time. Farther east,
   activity has increased over the last hour, though it has remained
   more cellular. Temperatures near the coast are slightly cooler. Wind
   damage will remain possible with all activity this evening. The
   greatest potential for wind damage (and marginally severe hail) will
   be with the westernmost storms.

   ..Wendt.. 09/01/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   39247599 39417627 39877663 40857699 41047691 41257672
               41417623 41207501 41037447 40957422 40197437 39657468
               39307516 39147547 39247599 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN