Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2176

   Mesoscale Discussion 2176
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0349 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

   Areas affected...western North Dakota...northwestern South
   Dakota...adjacent portions of southeastern Montana and northeastern
   Wyoming

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 636...

   Valid 302049Z - 302245Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 636
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A developing line of thunderstorms across western North
   Dakota may begin to become better organized with increasing
   potential to produce strong to severe wind gusts while approaching
   the Minot through Bismarck ND and Mobridge SD vicinity through 5-7
   PM CDT (4-6 PM MDT).  Trends will continue to be monitored for the
   possibility of a downstream severe weather watch.

   DISCUSSION...A surface cold front, enhanced by convective outflow,
   continues to strengthen while advancing east-southeastward into and
   across the Montana/western Dakotas state border vicinity, with
   2-hourly surface pressure rises on the order of 2-3+ mb evident in
   20Z surface observations across a broad area of eastern Montana into
   the lee of the Bighorn Mountains.  A downstream surface pressure
   fall center appears to be developing near/southwest through west of
   the Bismarck into Minot ND vicinity, ahead of increasing
   thunderstorm development within the moderately unstable
   boundary-layer near the pre-frontal surface trough axis.

   Thunderstorm initiation across western North Dakota has been aided
   by eroding inhibition, in the presence of continuing insolation and
   the onset of weak cooling aloft.  As the leading edge of lower-level
   cooling continues to overtake the surface trough, initially discrete
   storm development may quickly grow upscale into at least a narrow
   evolving line.  Although shear is initially modest, with further
   strengthening, convection probably will better organize, accompanied
   by evolving lower/mid-tropospheric meso-beta scale cyclonic
   circulations with increasing potential to produce strong to severe
   surface gusts.

   ..Kerr.. 08/30/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   49070279 48660132 45740124 44880222 44430405 45050505
               46370444 47250416 47980416 48760357 49070279 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN