Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2173

   Mesoscale Discussion 2173
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0530 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

   Areas affected...Northwestern North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 301030Z - 301300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated threat for large hail and severe wind gusts
   may continue for a couple more hours across northwestern North
   Dakota. The threat is expected to be too isolated for weather watch
   issuance.

   DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Minot,
   North Dakota shows a supercell to the southeast of Williston. This
   storm is moving eastward toward an instability maximum in
   northwestern North Dakota, where the RAP has MLCAPE around 1500
   J/kg. In addition, the Minot WSR-88D VWP has backed low-level flow
   from the east-southeast with up to 50 knots of west-southwesterly
   flow in the 6 to 8 km layer AGL. This is resulting in about 45 knots
   of 0-6 km shear which will support an isolated severe threat early
   this morning. The supercell in northwestern North Dakota could
   continue to maintain intensity as it moves eastward across the
   Missouri River Valley over the next couple of hours. Isolated large
   hail and a few strong to severe wind gusts will be possible along
   the path of the storm.

   ..Broyles/Hart.. 08/30/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BIS...

   LAT...LON   47820338 48120331 48230285 48220125 48210083 48110056
               47900055 47720063 47550098 47580201 47660300 47820338 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN