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Mesoscale Discussion 2167
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026
Areas affected...parts of east central/northeastern Nevada into west
central/northwestern Utah
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 291920Z - 292145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered intensifying thunderstorm development, including
a few evolving supercell structures posing a risk for severe hail
and wind, through 3-5 PM MDT. While it is not yet certain that a
severe weather watch will be needed, trends are being monitored for
this possibility.
DISCUSSION...Latest Rapid Refresh output continues to indicate that
the stronger mid-level jet streak is in the process of propagating
east-northeast of the Great Salt Lake vicinity through southern
Wyoming. However, west-southwesterly flow in the wake of this
feature is forecast to remain on the order of 40+ kt as low as the
600-500 mb layer, maintaining sufficient shear for organized
thunderstorm development.
Aided by forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric
warm advection, the initiation of scattered discrete thunderstorms
appears underway southwest of the Great Salt Lake vicinity into
eastern Nevada, where the boundary-layer remains moist and
insolation is contributing to increasing instability. As lingering
inhibition weakens further, and CAPE continues to increase in excess
of 1000 J/kg, the environment appears likely to become increasingly
conducive to the evolution of a few supercell structures posing a
risk for severe hail. Despite the relatively high boundary-layer
moisture content, these storms may also gradually pose increasing
potential to produce strong to severe surface gusts through late
afternoon, aided by heavier precipitation loading.
..Kerr/Mosier.. 08/29/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SLC...LKN...
LAT...LON 39961558 41041363 41241224 40441175 38961221 39111377
38821543 39961558
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN