Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2158

   Mesoscale Discussion 2158
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0347 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

   Areas affected...far southern Alabama and the far western Florida
   Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 190847Z - 191115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated tornado threat may develop this morning across
   southern Alabama and the far western Florida Panhandle.

   DISCUSSION...Storm coverage is increasing across the northern Gulf
   as a modest increase in the low-level jet has provided sufficient
   ascent within a moderately unstable airmass. The MOB VWP shows
   around 175 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH with strengthening deep-layer shear. As
   a result, mini supercells which have developed within this
   environment will pose some threat for low-level mesoscyclone
   organization and an isolated tornado threat. 

   Expect the tornado threat to remain isolated and confined to a small
   area near the coast. Therefore given the isolated threat and
   geographically limited region, no watch is anticipated. However, if
   a more organized threat develops and moves farther inland, a watch
   may need to be considered.

   ..Bentley/Smith.. 10/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30288735 30188797 30198843 30218850 30438854 30638834
               30708778 30758729 30698710 30308714 30288735 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH