Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2140

   Mesoscale Discussion 2140
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0351 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

   Areas affected...eastern New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 262051Z - 262315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for isolated severe thunderstorms capable of
   marginally severe hail and wind gusts up to 65-75 mph is expected to
   increase through the remainder of this afternoon into evening. The
   current expectation is that the threat will remain too limited
   spatially to warrant a watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and intensity
   this afternoon over the Sangre de Cristo and the Sacramento
   Mountains within a moist, mid-level flow regime rotating around the
   upper high. Latest objective analysis suggests that some degree of
   capping exists across the adjacent High Plains of eastern NM, likely
   limiting storms to the immediate vicinity of the mountains in the
   near term, where isolated occurrences of large hail appear possible.
   Continued daytime heating and resultant air mass destabilization
   should allow storms to move off the high terrain by late afternoon
   into this evening with some CAM guidance suggesting an increase in
   sporadic wind gusts up to 65-75 mph. Current thinking is that the
   threat will remain somewhat isolated; however, if observational data
   begin to suggest otherwise, a severe thunderstorm watch may need to
   be considered.

   ..Mead/Mosier.. 08/26/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34820517 35720524 36650512 36940494 36930436 36670345
               35780310 34890310 34300324 33880334 33850406 34290501
               34820517 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN