Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2121

   Mesoscale Discussion 2121
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0636 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of western NE into southwest SD

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 623...

   Valid 242336Z - 250100Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 623
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A threat for hail and localized severe gusts will continue
   into the evening.

   DISCUSSION...A small supercell cluster has evolved across southern
   Cherry County, with other developing storms noted farther south into
   west-central NE, and also farther north near the NE/SD border along
   a surface trough. MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg and sufficient deep-layer
   shear will continue to be favorable for organized severe storms into
   the early evening, with a threat of large to very large hail. With
   convection tending to remain semi-discrete, the severe-wind threat
   may tend to be localized, though favorable lapse rates will support
   potential for isolated 60-75 mph gusts. 

   Cooler temperatures and increasing MLCINH will tend to limit the
   eastward extent of the severe threat, though trends will be
   monitored regarding the need for any local watch expansions through
   the evening.

   ..Dean.. 08/24/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   40780190 41840139 42180136 42610180 42910201 43290210
               43620143 43610076 42980019 42249984 41379982 40870007
               40680029 40520071 40460122 40430176 40780190 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN