Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2084

   Mesoscale Discussion 2084
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0221 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

   Areas affected...eastern Nebraska...southwestern Iowa...and
   northwestern Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 161921Z - 162115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity to increase through the afternoon
   with risk for a few instances of strong to severe wind.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is increasing across portions of
   central Iowa. Strong daytime heating amid mid 60s dew points has
   aided in MLCAPE around 1500-3000 J/kg. Though temperatures are hot
   (warming into the mid 80s to 90s F) with moderate instability, deep
   layer flow remains weak. A few stronger cores may produce some
   instances of strong to severe wind, however, weaker shear will keep
   the severe risk limited and localized. Thunderstorm activity should
   diminish this evening with the loss of daytime heating.

   ..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...

   LAT...LON   39989570 40329692 40869736 41699753 42709710 43249630
               43169532 42819367 42159273 40039225 39149316 39089434
               39989570 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH