Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2056

   Mesoscale Discussion 2056
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0726 PM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025

   Areas affected...Central High Plains

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 609...

   Valid 100026Z - 100230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 609
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Hail threat is expected to persist with storms this
   evening, along with some wind risk.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated strong-severe thunderstorms are shifting
   slowly southeast across the central High Plains this evening. Strong
   boundary-layer heating has proven instrumental in this activity
   attaining severe levels as lapse rates are seasonally steep across
   this region. However, over the next few hours, nocturnal cooling
   will lead to increasing CINH and surface-based updrafts should being
   to struggle as they decouple from the boundary layer. 00z sounding
   from DDC exhibits this trend with weak inhibition noted around 1km.
   Even so, LLJ is forecast to increase after sunset and this should
   aid one or more elevated thunderstorm clusters that should propagate
   across western KS. Hail is the primary concern with this activity.

   ..Darrow.. 09/10/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   40000304 39380072 37350072 37980304 40000304 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN