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| Mesoscale Discussion 2053 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 2053
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026
Areas affected...Central Nebraska into southeast South Dakota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 201949Z - 202145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered storms may produce large hail
and severe winds this afternoon. Limited coverage may preclude watch
issuance, though trends will be monitored through the afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Weak thunderstorms have recently initiated within
Cherry County, NE this afternoon along a weak surface trough.
Moisture return continues into the central Plains along the western
flank of a surface high. Dewpoints have generally held in the
low/mid 60s F despite the strong heating/mixing. Given the mid-level
height rises that are occurring, storm coverage/longevity is in
question. With around 40 kt of effective shear and modestly steep
mid-level lapse rates on the 18Z LBF sounding, mature/sustained
storms would likely be supercellular and capable of large hail (up
to around 2 in.) and severe wind gusts. It is not clear whether a
watch will be needed this afternoon given potentially isolated
coverage. However, convective trends will continue to be monitored.
..Wendt/Smith.. 08/20/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 43139805 42499817 41529916 40850019 40810087 40940105
41500106 41960085 43099932 43309848 43139805
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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