Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2042

   Mesoscale Discussion 2042
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0300 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

   Areas affected...Portions of southern Missouri into far northern
   Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 192000Z - 192200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds, isolated large hail, and
   perhaps a tornado or two will eventually increase within parts of
   the Ozarks this afternoon. Timing of storm initiation is not
   certain, but a watch may eventually be needed.

   DISCUSSION...As cloud cover from earlier convection has cleared,
   cumulus agitation is noted in southwest Missouri along a
   quasi-dryline-like feature. Temperatures to the southwest of this
   boundary have risen into the low 100s F. Destabilization has
   occurred to the east of the boundary as well, though some MLCIN is
   still evident. 35-40 kt of effective shear across this boundary will
   promote eventual supercell development. Given the majority of the
   shear exists within the lower half of the troposphere, it is not
   certain how long a supercell mode will be maintained. Damaging
   winds, isolated large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two will be
   possible. A very modest increase in low-level flow during the
   evening will mean a modest increase in tornado potential should
   supercell modes exist beyond 00Z. A watch is possible this
   afternoon, though timing remains uncertain.

   ..Wendt/Smith.. 08/19/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   36319370 37089391 37899316 38129136 37379050 36589061
               36249072 35949172 36319370 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN