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Mesoscale Discussion 2040
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026
Areas affected...parts of eastern Mississippi into southern Alabama
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 191929Z - 192200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development is likely through 5-7
PM CDT, accompanied by localized damaging downbursts and at least a
bit more widespread strong, but generally sub-severe, wind gusts.
Due to the disorganized and generally localized nature of the more
intense gusts, a severe weather watch is not currently anticipated,
but trends will be monitored.
DISCUSSION...Forcing for thunderstorm development remains unclear,
but perhaps aided by weak near-surface warm advection, initiation of
widely scattered thunderstorms appears underway within a broadly
confluent low-level regime across eastern Mississippi into southern
Alabama. This is occurring in the presence of light (10 kt or less)
north-northwesterly deep-layer mean flow, but thermodynamic profiles
characterized by a strongly heated, seasonably high moisture content
boundary layer, with steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates of
potential wet-bulb temperature.
Heavy precipitation loading, coupled with evaporative cooling, may
contribute to localized damaging downbursts in the initially more
widely scattered strongest storms. Gradually,
colliding/intersecting outflow may contribute to increasing
thunderstorm development with continuing potential for strong
surface gusts into early evening.
..Kerr/Smith.. 08/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 33788926 33668742 31508581 30828680 31098831 32058932
33008981 33788926
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH