Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2026

   Mesoscale Discussion 2026
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0643 PM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025

   Areas affected...portions of southern Arizona

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 012343Z - 020145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity will continue south and westward
   through the evening with potential for strong to severe wind.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is ongoing this afternoon along
   and south of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains in
   northern/central Arizona. This activity will continue to drop
   southward into the lower deserts where temperatures have crested 100
   F and dew point spreads around 40-50 degrees. In addition, steep low
   to mid-level lapse rates are noted with deeply mixed profiles. New
   activity is forming along a southwestward moving outflow boundary
   east of the Phoenix Metro. This may support a few instances of
   strong to severe wind and low visibility from blowing dust this
   evening.

   ..Thornton/Hart.. 09/01/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

   LAT...LON   34131168 34251118 34181116 34061115 33931099 33761074
               33611044 33511014 33420971 33190983 33011007 32811073
               32851119 32991161 33241197 33381214 33561215 34131168 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH