Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1995

   Mesoscale Discussion 1995
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0250 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

   Areas affected...northeast Alabama...northwest Georgia...and
   portions of southeast Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 201950Z - 202115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts are possible this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has developed across southeast
   Tennessee. As these storms, and associated outflow, move south, they
   will encounter increasing instability with temperatures in the upper
   80s to low 90s and dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding 2500 J/kg
   MLCAPE. Despite the favorable thermodynamic environment, shear is
   quite weak (flow less than 20 knots in the entire troposphere on the
   HTX VWP). This weak shear will likely result in mostly unorganized
   storms with strong outflow. Stronger cores/water loading will
   support the threat for microbursts, particularly where boundary
   collisions occur. Expect the greatest severe threat to shift south
   through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening as
   outflow continues to progress south.

   ..Bentley/Gleason.. 08/20/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   34108738 35258617 35718500 35568432 34848410 34008453
               33348479 32868617 33268694 34108738 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH