Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1971

   Mesoscale Discussion 1971
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0341 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

   Areas affected...portions of the central High Plains

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 132041Z - 132245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along the Front Range will evolve
   eastward through this evening, bringing a risk for isolated severe
   wind gusts and large hail.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis depicts a cold front
   approaching the Front Range across portions of the central High
   Plains. Easterly, upslope flow within the post-frontal air mass is
   aiding in the westerly advection of richer low-level moisture
   (low-to-mid 60s F surface dewpoints). As thunderstorms developing
   along the Front Range evolve eastward and encounter this greater
   moisture and buoyancy, at least some increase in the severe risk is
   expected. Modest effective shear of 20-30 kts (indicated by recent
   mesoanalysis) and cold pool consolidation should primarily favor a
   multicellular/cluster storm mode, with damaging/severe wind gusts
   the primary hazard owing to steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated
   large hail may also accompany any more robust updrafts given the
   presence of steeper mid-level lapse rates. Watch issuance appears
   unlikely at this time owing to the expectation for the severe risk
   to remain generally limited in coverage and magnitude.

   ..Chalmers/Guyer.. 08/13/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   37210193 37050220 37040264 37050416 37240444 38040490
               39920551 40680555 41220549 41690514 41960480 42040402
               41890328 41510255 40390190 38780177 37770183 37210193 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN