Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1969

   Mesoscale Discussion 1969
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0257 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

   Areas affected...portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into
   northwest Oklahoma and southwest Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 131957Z - 132200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...High-based thunderstorms will develop across portions of
   the central High/Great Plains this afternoon and bring a risk for
   isolated severe wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery depicts a deepening
   cumulus field within a plume of very steep low-level lapse rates of
   10+ C/km (per latest objective analysis) across portions of the
   TX/OK Panhandles to the south of a frontal system analyzed across
   CO/KS. Recent observations indicate this air mass has warmed into
   the low 100s F with dewpoints ranging from the mid-50s (Panhandles)
   to mid-60s F (Kansas). Regional 18z observed soundings from AMA/DDC
   sampled this environment and depicted deep, increasingly well-mixed
   boundary layer profiles with weak deep-layer flow/shear (less than
   10-15 kts). While this will generally limit the organization
   developing, high-based convection, efficient evaporative cooling and
   cold pool formation will foster a risk for at least isolated severe
   wind gusts to 65-70 mph given inverted-V thermodynamic profiles.
   This threat may locally increase with northward extent where storms
   will encounter greater low-level moisture and buoyancy to the north
   of a surface cold front. Trends will continue to be monitored, but
   generally limited potential for storm organization and the isolated
   nature of the severe risk are likely to preclude watch issuance.

   ..Chalmers/Guyer.. 08/13/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   34640201 36360206 36490209 37760185 38390136 38650024
               38509909 37949807 36729869 35739962 34290075 33860173
               34640201 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN