Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1906

   Mesoscale Discussion 1906
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1045 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025

   Areas affected...Northwest Kansas to south-central Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 090345Z - 090545Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in areal coverage
   from northwest Kansas into south central Nebraska. A few storms may
   be locally severe with a risk for hail and wind.

   DISCUSSION...Southern influence of northern Rockies/Plains upper
   trough is expected to aid convection within a post-frontal regime
   into the early-morning hours. Latest model guidance suggests 500mb
   flow will increase across northern CO into southern NE. While
   surface-based parcels are likely capped across this region, frontal
   lift and cooling 700mb temperatures appear favorable for elevated
   convection. Latest radar data supports this with a gradual increase
   in storms across northwest KS. This activity may continue to
   increase as it spreads/develops northeast over the next several
   hours. Hail and wind are the primary threats.

   ..Darrow/Guyer.. 08/09/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

   LAT...LON   40050187 41139930 40349851 39250036 39020178 40050187 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN