Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1835

   Mesoscale Discussion 1835
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1125 PM CDT Tue Aug 04 2026

   Areas affected...the eastern Arizona international border vicinity

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 538...

   Valid 050425Z - 050630Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 538
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A couple of strong to severe wind gusts might still be
   possible through about 10-11 PM MST near the eastern Arizona
   international border vicinity.

   DISCUSSION...A concentrated area of stronger convection to the
   southeast of Douglas AZ, appears in the process of collapsing,
   perhaps accompanied by increasing potential for strong to severe
   surface gusts near the international border area over the next hour
   or so.  However, renewed intensifying convection is tending to occur
   to the southwest of this core, farther to the south of the
   international border, aided by more unstable updraft inflow and
   better shear.  As this trend continues into the overnight hours. the
   risk for severe weather appears to be diminishing sufficiently to
   allow the severe weather watch to expire.

   ..Kerr.. 08/05/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TWC...

   LAT...LON   30731098 31101110 31381100 31500933 31000875 30530921
               30351047 30731098 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH