Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1573

   Mesoscale Discussion 1573
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1119 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025

   Areas affected...Black Hills region

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 488...

   Valid 060419Z - 060615Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 488
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Isolated gusts and marginally severe hail possible for the
   next several hours.

   DISCUSSION...Long-lived complex of storms that developed over
   southern MT have spread southeast across the northern Black Hills
   and appear to be encountering less buoyancy as they spread into the
   High Plains. Northern plume of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE extends into
   extreme southern SD, but nocturnal cooling will eventually force
   cloud bases to become more elevated in nature, especially where
   temperatures have lowered into the upper 60s/near 70F. Large-scale
   support ahead of the MT short-wave trough will continue to encourage
   this activity to propagate southeast; however, severe wind gusts
   should become increasingly isolated, and hail may struggle to attain
   severe levels. At this time a new severe thunderstorm watch does not
   appear warranted.

   ..Darrow.. 07/06/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...UNR...

   LAT...LON   44260440 44390275 44840139 43240152 43580439 44260440 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN