Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1206

   Mesoscale Discussion 1206
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0514 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Louisiana into central and
   southern Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 192214Z - 192345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts are possible this evening with
   wet downbursts. The severe threat should remain sparse, so a WW
   issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar and satellite imagery, as well as
   NLDN lightning data, all show a slight uptick in intensity with
   pulse-cellular storms across eastern LA into central and southern
   MS. If storms can merge, the very unstable environment (e.g. 3500
   J/kg MLCAPE) will encourage the development of water-loaded
   downdrafts capable of supporting a couple of damaging gusts. Given
   weak vertical wind shear and the potential lack of overall favorable
   clustering, the severe threat should remain disorganized and sparse,
   with no WW issuance currently planned.

   ..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/19/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   31489235 32159175 32629134 32649041 32338964 31658877
               31068844 30688845 30458879 30318934 30389016 30499111
               30649181 30779215 31489235 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH