Mesoscale Discussion 1168
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0445 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026
Areas affected...Northeast IA...southwest WI...extreme southeast MN
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 341...
Valid 172145Z - 172345Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 341
continues.
SUMMARY...A threat for isolated hail, strong/damaging gusts, and
possibly a tornado may spread southeast through late afternoon.
DISCUSSION...A small thunderstorm cluster is moving across parts of
extreme southeast MN and northeast IA late this afternoon, in the
vicinity of a surface low and a seasonably strong mid/upper-level
shortwave trough. Heating and destabilization have been relatively
muted across this region, though MLCAPE increasing to near 1000 J/kg
and moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support potential for
organized storms through late afternoon. Isolated hail and
strong/damaging gusts may accompany the strongest storms. Also, with
low-level vorticity relatively maximized in the vicinity of the
surface low, a tornado cannot be ruled out, especially if any
sustained supercell structures can become established.
This convection is approaching the southeast part of WW 341.
Depending on short-term trends, local expansion of the watch may be
considered, but the need for downstream watch issuance is uncertain,
unless there is a notable uptick in storm intensity and
organization.
..Dean/Smith.. 06/17/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...
LAT...LON 44069244 43869098 43709069 43139049 42779051 42489051
42319079 42319131 42579200 42899237 43369268 43539268
44069244
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
narcolepticnerd