Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1100

   Mesoscale Discussion 1100
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0623 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of the Texas Rolling Plains

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 112323Z - 120100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated risk of severe downbursts and large hail will
   persist for the next couple hours.

   DISCUSSION...A couple semi-discrete cells are developing along the
   cold front in parts of the TX Rolling Plains. Here, temperatures in
   the upper 90s amid upper 60s to near 70 dewpoints and steep
   deep-layer lapse rates are contributing to a strongly unstable air
   mass (around 3500 J/kg MLCAPE). While this environment is conducive
   for robust updrafts capable of producing sporadic large hail and
   severe downbursts, modest deep-layer shear may limit storm
   longevity. Given the localized nature of the risk, a watch is not
   currently expected.

   ..Weinman/Smith.. 06/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...

   LAT...LON   34060104 34460057 34600019 34509997 34010004 33580045
               33420125 33550166 33880171 34060104 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN