Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1087

   Mesoscale Discussion 1087
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1127 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

   Areas affected...western Pennsylvania...eastern Ohio...western
   Maryland...north-central Virginia...and much of West Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 111627Z - 111830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated across the
   region through early afternoon. The main risk will be severe wind
   gusts, and perhaps some hail. A severe thunderstorm watch may be
   warranted to cover these threats.

   DISCUSSION...Amidst a relatively zonal (if not slightly ridged)
   upper-air pattern, a subtle impulse is noted in water vapor imagery
   over western Lake Erie and central OH as of 1600z. Associated
   mesoscale ascent is contributing to increasing mid-level cloudiness
   in the area. Closer to the surface, diurnal heating and warm, moist
   advection with southwesterly surface flow is driving temperatures
   and dewpoints into the low-/mid- 80s and 70s F, respectively. The
   12z PIT (Pittsburgh, PA) sounding showed steeper lapse rates around
   1-3 km AGL (up to around 7 C/km) that decrease with height, and bulk
   shear around 20-25 kts.

   Over the next couple of hours, this modest westerly shear should
   persist as the mid-level impulse moves through. Associated forcing
   and diurnal destabilization should yield scattered thunderstorm
   development through the early afternoon. Relatively large CAPE
   values (around 2000+ J/kg) will support some downbursts/severe wind
   gusts with any stronger cores or merging outflows. The moist
   environment and weaker-shear regime should temper the hail threat,
   but some hail cannot be ruled out.

   ..Flournoy/Gleason.. 06/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

   LAT...LON   37368097 39508197 40818180 41968114 42218023 42147868
               40597799 38557834 37417947 37368097 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN