Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1046

   Mesoscale Discussion 1046
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0136 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

   Areas affected...parts of the eastern Dakotas and adjacent western
   Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 091836Z - 092030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered strong thunderstorm
   development is possible through 3-5 PM CDT.  This may include
   evolving supercell structures posing the risk for large hail and a
   tornado or two.  Trends are being monitored for the possibility of a
   severe weather watch.

   DISCUSSION...A plume of warm and increasingly capping elevated
   mixed-layer air continues to nose northeastward into and through
   much of the northern Great Plains.  However, downstream of a
   mesoscale convective vortex now migrating northeastward across the
   Aberdeen SD vicinity, deepening convective development is evident
   within a seasonably moist boundary-layer characterized by surface
   dew points near 70F, which appear to be supporting sizable CAPE on
   the order of 3000 J/kg.  

   Inhibition near the western Minnesota/Dakotas state border vicinity
   remains weaker compared to upstream, but further warming at
   mid-levels (particularly around 700 mb) through the remainder of the
   afternoon casts some uncertainty concerning potential storm
   intensities and sustenance. This is reflected in substantive spread
   among the convection allowing guidance.  However, given the
   magnitude of the potential instability, deep-layer shear appears at
   least marginally conducive to the evolution of supercell structures 
   with sustained thunderstorm development.  Modest clockwise curved
   low-level hodographs could support the risk for a tornado, in
   addition to large hail and locally damaging wind gusts.

   ..Kerr/Mosier.. 06/09/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   47279837 47819810 47369657 45899654 45159657 45549797
               46229829 47279837 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN