Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1038

   Mesoscale Discussion 1038
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0855 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

   Areas affected...central and eastern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 290...

   Valid 090155Z - 090400Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 290
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An evolving thunderstorm complex will move southeastward
   with a risk for severe gusts this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Ongoing convection over Tornado Watch 287 and Severe
   Watch 290 has grown upscale into an organized and linear convective
   complex this evening. Further upscale growth is likely as the
   cluster interacts with a very unstable environment (MLCAPE 4000+
   J/kg) and a 25-35 kt southerly low-level jet. The strong instability
   and cold pool will likely support severe gusts through this evening.
   A few significant gusts to 75+ mph are also possible.

   Observed low-level shear is also fairly strong from the ICT VAD
   (0-1km SRH of 100-200 m2/s2). This could support a couple of
   tornadoes, both with the linear cluster, and with interacting cells
   ahead of the outflow. With the complex expected to continue
   east/southeast, the risk for severe wind gusts remains high across
   WW290.

   ..Lyons.. 06/09/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37509528 37379582 37609725 37909812 38249873 38669890
               39139889 39589816 39729738 39589629 39369573 39019520
               38059508 37679517 37509528 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN