Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1032

   Mesoscale Discussion 1032
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0312 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

   Areas affected...portions of the southern High Plains and central
   Great Plains

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 082012Z - 082215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated, high-based thunderstorms will pose a risk for
   large hail and damaging/severe wind gusts this through this evening.
   Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis depicts a surface low located
   in southwestern Kansas, with a trailing dryline extending
   southwestward through the Texas Panhandle and into far southeastern
   New Mexico. A weak cold front/surface trough was also analyzed,
   trailing southwestward from the low into the Oklahoma Panhandle
   before extending into Colorado. Latest guidance continues to suggest
   that isolated, high-based thunderstorms will develop along/west of
   this dryline and south of the surface trough through the late
   afternoon/early evening. Recent satellite/observational data
   supports this, with deepening cumulus noted along and west of the
   dryline within the plume of steep low-level lapse rates and a
   modified 18z observed AMA sounding suggesting minimal remaining
   inhibition.

   Weak mid-level flow and effective shear (less than 20 kts per latest
   mesoanalysis) will largely inhibit updraft organization. Deep,
   well-mixed boundary layers west of the dryline (dewpoint depressions
   exceeding 40-50 F) and steep low-level lapse rates will promote the
   potential for isolated damaging/severe wind gusts. Despite weak
   effective shear, steep mid-level lapse rates (9+ C/km as sampled by
   the AMA/DDC/LMN 18z observed soundings) and a modest strengthening
   of upper-level flow through the evening will also support isolated
   large hail, particularly with any storm that can interact with
   greater moisture along/east of the dryline (although, low-level
   capping within the moist air mass east of the dryline will likely
   yield short longevity for any storms that cross the dryline).

   Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time owing to the
   expectations for limited storm organization and only an isolated
   severe threat.

   ..Chalmers/Smith.. 06/08/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34110064 32330249 32090284 31970337 32090385 32410397
               32960379 33680344 35030247 35140242 35970178 36240171
               36560173 36890184 37060195 37320196 37660191 37840173
               37960145 37990089 37929995 37779939 37499886 36999869
               36329894 35459952 34110064 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN