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| Mesoscale Discussion 1005 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1005
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026
Areas affected...western Pennsylvania...New Jersey...New
York...northern Maryland...Delaware
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 062017Z - 062215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Downstream damaging wind potential will increase into the
late afternoon/evening.
DISCUSSION...Several clusters of severe storms are advancing
eastward across PA/WV this afternoon producing gusts 60-70 mph.
These will likely persist downstream into portions of New Jersey,
southeast New York, northern Maryland, and Delaware including
Philadelphia and New York City. The environment downstream is
characterized by temperatures in the mid 80s to 90s and gradually
increasing MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg from the west. Steep low level
lapse rates around 7-8 C/km and the increasingly warm and unstable
air mass will support maintenance of thunderstorms downstream with
potential for continued gusts to 70+ mph. A watch will be needed
soon to cover this potential.
..Thornton/Thompson.. 06/06/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 41097636 41447570 41547373 41507292 41277221 40927223
40237329 39577392 39087446 38897472 38817493 38977579
39007650 39617667 41097636
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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