Storm Prediction Center Apr 1, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

   SPC AC 010051

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0751 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

   Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
   EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NERN NC...ERN VA...SERN PA...THE DELMARVA
   PENINSULA AND SRN/CNTRL NJ...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorm activity may continue to pose the risk for locally
   damaging wind gusts while overspreading the Chesapeake Bay and
   northern Mid Atlantic coast vicinity late this evening.

   ...01Z Update...

   ...Mid Atlantic...
   Given the modest strength of the southwesterly deep-layer mean flow
   (around 40 kt), with the loss of boundary-layer heating,
   thermodynamic profiles near/east of the pre-frontal surface trough
   across the Mid Atlantic vicinity are becoming increasingly marginal
   for convective development capable of producing damaging wind gusts.

   ...Florida...
   A couple of strong thunderstorms linger near a weak surface trough
   across the east central Florida Peninsula, where mixed-layer CAPE is
   moderately large, but diminishing with the loss of daytime heating. 
   Given the rather weak lower/mid-tropospheric flow and modest
   deep-layer shear, thunderstorm intensities are expected to wane
   within the next hour or two.

   ...Deep South Texas...
   Another isolated strong to severe thunderstorm has developed to the
   east of Laredo near a diffuse dryline, as an initial severe storm
   near the San Antonio vicinity dissipated.  However, given the
   inhibition associated with warm, dry lower/mid-tropospheric air
   present across the region, this latest cell is not expected to be
   long-lived, as boundary-layer cooling proceeds and inhibition
   increases further.

   ..Kerr.. 04/01/2025

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