MD 0404 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0404
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026
Areas affected...portions of eastern Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 132053Z - 132300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may develop along a dryline across
portions of eastern Kansas this afternoon/evening. Any storms that
do develop will bring a threat for all hazards, with the main threat
large to very large hail.
DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery depicts an area of
deepening cumulus along a dryline in the vicinity of Wichita,
Kansas. Ahead of this dryline, surface temperatures in the mid-80s
and dewpoints in the mid-60s F are contributing to 2000-2500+ J/kg
MLCAPE within the warm sector. Steep mid-level lapse rates (evident
on the 18Z LMN special sounding), elongated hodographs (effective
bulk shear of 30-35+ kts per latest mesoanalysis), and ample
buoyancy within the hail growth zone will support the potential for
large to very large hail to 3+ inches in diameter with any storm
that does develop. The tornado threat remains somewhat more
conditional on a storm persisting into the evening hours when a
strengthening nocturnal low-level jet will support increasing
low-level hodograph curvature and an accompanying increase in the
tornado threat for any ongoing supercells.
Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time owing to uncertainty
regarding the occurrence of convective initiation. Trends will be
closely monitored and a watch may be needed should initiation appear
imminent given the conditionally favorable environment.
..Chalmers/Hart.. 04/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 37629505 37259551 37059638 37129741 37369761 37859758
38829716 39309681 39569631 39579562 39299513 38709495
38139494 37629505
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN