MD 1091 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1091
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026
Areas affected...the Mid-Atlantic into southern New York and
southwestern New England
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 111902Z - 112100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this
afternoon across the mid-Atlantic northward into southern New York
and southwestern New England. Severe wind gusts and hail are
possible with the strongest storms.
DISCUSSION...Some deeper convective attempts are underway this
afternoon across portions of the mid-Atlantic, particularly in
southern New York as of 1900z. This development is occurring in a
warm, unstable airmass with surface temperatures in the upper 80s
and lower 90s F and MLCAPE values around 2000+ J/kg. The 18z
ALB/Albany, NY sounding sampled the northern periphery of this
airmass (along the CAPE gradient) with 0-6-km shear of 24 kts. This
has supported some sporadic, more organized thunderstorm development
recently.
As the afternoon progresses, diurnal heating should support
additional thunderstorm development across the region. Furthermore,
a mid-level impulse in eastern OH -- influencing the ongoing
convection in WW312 -- will continue moving eastward and should
provide additional support for convective initiation and maturation.
Bulk shear is expected to remain generally in the 15-25 kt range
which, amidst forecast large MLCAPE around 2500-3000 J/kg, will
promote strong updrafts capable of producing wind gusts and hail.
Uncertainty remains as to how much convection will develop and
coalesce/strengthen in the short term, but trends will continue to
be monitored for possible watch issuance this afternoon.
..Flournoy/Gleason.. 06/11/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 39937855 42097738 42657579 42777436 42337326 41237290
40177310 37717495 37397648 37777765 38937842 39937855
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN