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cat $HOME/public_html/posts/storm-prediction-center-severe-thunderstorm-watch-638.txt >> story.html | parse_story story.html; rm -f storm-prediction-center-severe-thunderstorm-watch-638.txt story.html
Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 638
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
435 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Delaware
Northeast Maryland
New Jersey
Southern New York
Central and Eastern Pennsylvania
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 435 PM until Midnight
EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms should pose a threat for large
hail this afternoon as they track east-southeastward across the
northern Mid-Atlantic. The threat for scattered severe/damaging
winds should increase this evening as one or more clusters develops.
A tornado or two may also occur with any sustained supercell.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north northwest
of Wilkesbarre PA to 35 miles east southeast of Dover DE. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
31025.
...Gleason
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8 WW 638 SEVERE TSTM DE MD NJ NY PA CW 012035Z - 020400Z AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE.. 50NNW AVP/WILKESBARRE PA/ - 35ESE DOV/DOVER DE/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /35W HNK - 10SSW SIE/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 31025. LAT...LON 41997453 38937337 38937636 41997765 THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS FOR WOU8.
Watch 638 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 638 VALID 012345Z - 020040Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES LEFT OF A LINE FROM 15 S JFK TO 15 S EWR TO 5 WSW EWR TO 40 SSW MSV TO 20 WSW MSV TO 30 E BGM. ..WENDT..09/01/26 ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX...OKX...BGM...CTP... && STATUS REPORT FOR WS 638 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-020040- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX $$ MDC011-015-025-029-035-041-020040- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAROLINE CECIL HARFORD KENT QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT $$ NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-019-021-023-025-029-033-035-041- 020040- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH OCEAN SALEM SOMERSET WARREN $$ PAC011-015-017-023-025-027-029-033-035-037-041-043-045-047-067- 071-075-077-079-081-083-087-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-105-107- 109-113-115-117-119-123-127-131-133-020040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKS BRADFORD BUCKS CAMERON CARBON CENTRE CHESTER CLEARFIELD CLINTON COLUMBIA CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN DELAWARE ELK JUNIATA LANCASTER LEBANON LEHIGH LUZERNE LYCOMING MCKEAN MIFFLIN MONROE MONTGOMERY MONTOUR NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND PERRY PHILADELPHIA POTTER SCHUYLKILL SNYDER SULLIVAN SUSQUEHANNA TIOGA UNION WARREN WAYNE WYOMING YORK $$ ANZ430-431-450-451-452-453-454-455-530-539-540-020040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD EASTERN BAY $$ THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. $$ STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 638 VALID 012140Z - 012240Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..09/01/26 ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX...OKX...BGM...CTP... && STATUS REPORT FOR WS 638 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-012240- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX $$ MDC011-015-025-029-035-041-012240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAROLINE CECIL HARFORD KENT QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT $$ NJC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029- 031-033-035-037-039-041-012240- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND ESSEX GLOUCESTER HUDSON HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN PASSAIC SALEM SOMERSET SUSSEX UNION WARREN $$ NYC005-047-061-071-079-081-085-087-105-119-012240- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRONX KINGS NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) ORANGE PUTNAM QUEENS RICHMOND ROCKLAND SULLIVAN WESTCHESTER $$ PAC011-015-017-025-027-029-035-037-041-043-045-067-069-071-075- 077-079-081-087-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-113- 115-117-119-127-131-133-012240- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKS BRADFORD BUCKS CARBON CENTRE CHESTER CLINTON COLUMBIA CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN DELAWARE JUNIATA LACKAWANNA LANCASTER LEBANON LEHIGH LUZERNE LYCOMING MIFFLIN MONROE MONTGOMERY MONTOUR NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND PERRY PHILADELPHIA PIKE POTTER SCHUYLKILL SNYDER SULLIVAN SUSQUEHANNA TIOGA UNION WAYNE WYOMING YORK $$ ANZ338-430-431-450-451-452-453-454-455-530-539-540-012240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE NEW YORK HARBOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD EASTERN BAY $$ THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. $$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
| Probability of 2 or more tornadoes |
Low (20%) |
| Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes |
Low (5%) |
Wind
| Probability of 10 or more severe wind events |
Mod (60%) |
| Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots |
Low (10%) |
Hail
| Probability of 10 or more severe hail events |
Mod (50%) |
| Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches |
Low (20%) |
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
| Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events |
High (80%) |
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The “Low” category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
“Moderate” from 30% to 60%, and “High” from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.