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| Mesoscale Discussion 341 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0341
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern KS...western/northern
MO...extreme southeast NE...southern IA...western IL
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 031826Z - 032030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to severe storm development is expected this
afternoon. Watch issuance is likely.
DISCUSSION...Isolated storm development is underway early this
afternoon in the vicinity of a cold front across
east-central/northeast KS. With mid 60s F dewpoints and temperatures
rising through the 70s F, MLCINH has largely been removed along/east
of the cold front and along/south of a northward-moving warm front
draped from northeast KS into northern MO and west-central IL. Storm
coverage is expected to increase through the afternoon, as a
vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves across the Great
Plains.
Moderate to strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg) and effective
shear of 40-50 kt will support organized convection. Storm
development near the cold front may initially evolve into
supercells, with an attendant tornado and large hail threat. An
eventual tendency toward a cluster or linear mode (accompanied by
increasing damaging-wind potential) may occur along the cold front,
due to increasing storm coverage and interaction.
A separate area of supercell potential may evolve along the warm
front from northern MO into west-central IL. Any surface-based
supercell that can persist near the warm-frontal zone could pose a
tornado threat, in addition to large hail and localized
damaging-wind potential.
Issuance of one or more watches is likely this afternoon, in
response to the threats described above.
..Dean/Hart.. 04/03/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...
TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38929662 40039599 40339569 40929512 40989391 41169105
41258920 40988825 40138827 39708988 39589092 38469332
38159418 38129508 38349703 38929662
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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