Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 334

   Mesoscale Discussion 0334
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0341 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of eastern IA...northwest IL...far northeast
   MO

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 89...

   Valid 022041Z - 022215Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 89 continues.

   SUMMARY...A threat for tornadoes, hail, and severe gusts will spread
   eastward through late afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A small cluster of storms has developed across parts of
   central/southern IA and far northern MO, immediately in advance of
   an eastward-moving mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant
   surface low. A warm front extending eastward from the low continues
   to move quickly northward, with ongoing storms expected to persist
   as they move eastward across the warm sector. 

   Ahead of the primary broken line of storms, a supercell has recently
   intensified near Ottumwa, IA, where 2-hour surface pressure falls
   were maximized on the 20Z surface analysis. This supercell recently
   produced 2-inch diameter hail. While surface winds south of the warm
   front remain somewhat veered, strong flow just above the surface
   (50+ kt at 1-2 km AGL per area VWPs) is supporting 0-1 km SRH of
   greater than 200 m2/s2, sufficient to support a tornado threat with
   this supercell and any other warm-sector supercell through the
   afternoon. Otherwise, large hail and localized severe gusts will
   continue to be possible. 

   Farther southeast, convection is gradually increasing across far
   northeast MO/southeast IA, and a supercell or two could evolve
   within this region with time, with an attendant threat of all severe
   hazards.

   ..Dean.. 04/02/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   40299322 41199266 41759303 42209217 42549095 42459048
               42259021 41808992 41258988 40568992 39849048 39669239
               40299322 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN