Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 322

   Mesoscale Discussion 0322
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0525 PM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of southwest Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 012225Z - 020030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk of severe storms capable of producing large hail
   and severe wind gusts will increase over the next few hours. A watch
   will be needed within the next hour or so.

   DISCUSSION...The latest visible satellite and radar data show a
   gradual increase in high-based convection developing on the
   immediate hot/dry side of the dryline extending across southwest TX.
   While it is unclear if these early storms will pose a substantial
   severe risk in the near term, a deeply mixed boundary layer and
   around 40 kt of midlevel west-southwesterly flow orthogonal to the
   dryline could promote a couple severe downburts and sporadic large
   hail with any storms that mature. With time, additional storm
   development is expected as modest large-scale ascent influences the
   area and enhances surface convergence along the dryline.
   Elongating/mostly straight hodographs (effective shear increasing to
   around 50 kt) and steep deep-layer lapse rates/moderate
   surface-based buoyancy should support a mix of semi-discrete
   supercells and clusters with a risk of large to very large hail and
   severe wind gusts. With time, these storms should grow upscale and
   pose a continued/increasing risk of scattered severe winds. While
   less likely, a tornado or two will also be possible as storms
   intercept a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet this
   evening/overnight. A watch will likely be needed within the next
   hour or so.

   ..Weinman/Leitman.. 04/01/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30710247 31280220 32680128 32980071 33090007 32979954
               32569930 31759948 30290075 29890145 29850220 30110252
               30710247 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN