Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 316

   Mesoscale Discussion 0316
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0858 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

   Areas affected...Upper Ohio Valley

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 80...83...

   Valid 010158Z - 010400Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 80, 83
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Locally damaging winds will accompany squall line this
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...Surface front is gradually advancing southeast across
   the Great Lakes this evening as a midlevel short-wave trough shifts
   across LE/northern OH. An elongated, complex MCS has evolved ahead
   of this feature with several clusters propagating east-southeast
   across western PA into northern OH. In both cases a weak MCV is
   likely evident within the broader precip shield which is indicative
   of the maturity of this convection. Latest radar data suggests
   damaging winds may be noted along the leading edge of these
   arc-shaped squall lines. Although buoyancy is gradually decreasing
   across this region, at least for the next few hours robust
   convection will likely continue.

   ..Darrow.. 04/01/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   40258203 40257948 40877768 41377801 41167980 41278121
               40258203 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN