Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 300

   Mesoscale Discussion 0300
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1049 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

   Areas affected...Lower Michigan and far northern Indiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 310349Z - 310615Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms mainly capable of hail should
   increase through late evening into the overnight. While the need for
   a Watch is uncertain, short-term trends will continue to be
   monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have steadily increased through late
   evening across the middle part of Lower Michigan. These storms are
   occurring near/just north of a stationary/slow-moving warm front,
   and should further increase over the next several hours via
   warm/moist advection and isentropic ascent. Additional storm
   development/persistence may also occur farther south across southern
   Lower Michigan and far northern Indiana via storms that are
   developing across northeast Illinois. Steep mid-level lapse rates
   are steadily advecting eastward across the region, and strong shear
   through the cloud-bearing layer will support some severe
   storms/elevated supercells north of the front. Some damaging wind
   potential may also exist with any storm development or persistence
   into/across the southern half of Lower Michigan and/or far northern
   Indiana, although increasing convective inhibition will tend to be a
   detrimental factor.

   ..Guyer.. 03/31/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

   LAT...LON   44608628 44408444 44318308 43728255 43078393 41908473
               41398595 41498695 43208655 44608628 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN