Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 261

   Mesoscale Discussion 0261
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0121 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of southwest and central Alabama

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 60...

   Valid 160621Z - 160715Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 60 continues.

   SUMMARY...A couple storms evolving ahead of the main squall line are
   being monitored for a potential increase in severe potential.

   DISCUSSION...Ahead of a squall line advancing eastward across
   western AL, a couple storms are evolving within a plume of weak
   low-level warm advection and surface confluence. While lingering
   inhibition (sampled by 04Z BMX sounding) and weak forcing for ascent
   cast uncertainty on intensification of these storms -- especially
   before being overtaken by the approaching QLCS -- large
   clockwise-curved hodographs (around 200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH) and
   ample buoyancy will conditionally favor intensification into a
   supercell or two. If this were to occur, all severe hazards would be
   possible, including tornadoes.

   ..Weinman.. 03/16/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   31788805 32298778 33078701 33188670 33138636 32958611
               32758614 32478633 31688712 31458751 31528799 31788805 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN