Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2206

   Mesoscale Discussion 2206
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0348 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026

   Areas affected...North-central Montana

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 644...

   Valid 022048Z - 022245Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 644
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The potential for severe winds, including significant
   severe winds, will increase over the next couple of hours across
   north-central Montana.

   DISCUSSION...A line of broken convection continues to push north
   across the higher terrain of western MT. Convective cells have
   exhibited relatively short lifespans thus far, likely indicating
   that significant cold-pool amalgamation has yet to occur to support
   sustained updrafts. Nonetheless, strong dynamics (evidenced by 45-55
   mph gusts away from deep convection) coupled with convective
   downdrafts are yielding severe gusts between 60-75 mph. 

   The strong non-convective gusts across south-central MT and eastern
   ID are reflective of the stronger low/mid-level jet beginning to
   push northward into central MT. As this feature continues north it
   will overspread a warmer and more deeply mixed air mass in place at
   lower elevation across north-central MT. The combination of stronger
   flow overspreading the top of the deeply mixed boundary layer (as
   suggested by modifying the 18z TFX sounding) coupled with convective
   augmentation will likely support a corridor of more widespread gusts
   of 65-80 mph - especially where temperatures have warmed into the
   mid 80s.

   ..Moore.. 09/02/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TFX...

   LAT...LON   48951050 48720993 48400972 47820988 47341014 46721073
               46501123 46481177 46581207 47101240 48301290 48631287
               48881262 48961194 48951050 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH