Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1965

   Mesoscale Discussion 1965
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0205 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

   Areas affected...northeast Iowa...southeast Minnesota and western
   Wisconsin.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 161905Z - 162030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible this
   afternoon/evening. No watch is anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has developed across southeast
   Minnesota and western Wisconsin in the wake of the morning MCS.
   These elevated storms are in a region with strong shear (50+ knots
   per ARX VWP), but are somewhat removed from the better elevated
   instability according to SPC mesoanalysis. Therefore, the current
   location and storm motion favoring movement farther into the cold
   air would suggest severe potential may be somewhat limited from this
   activity. If additional storms can develop farther south (across
   northeast Iowa), they may pose a greater severe potential, but
   visible satellite trends do not support an imminent threat of
   additional development in this area.

   ..Bentley.. 08/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   44409206 44419092 44719027 44718994 44388950 43798922
               43368939 43099022 42889121 42889230 43059311 43529328
               44409206 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN