Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1545

   Mesoscale Discussion 1545
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1152 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025

   Areas affected...Southeast SD...northeast NE...northwest IA...and
   far southwest MN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 030452Z - 030645Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated instances of severe hail will be possible with
   the stronger storms tonight.

   DISCUSSION...In response to weak low-level warm advection, isolated
   thunderstorms are developing along the northeastern periphery of a
   large-scale ridge. Here, 30-40 kt of midlevel northwesterly flow is
   yielding an elongated/mostly straight hodograph (around 30 kt of
   effective shear). This wind profile, coupled with an influx of steep
   midlevel lapse rates atop a shallow low-level stable layer, may
   support a couple elevated/transient supercell structures -- capable
   of producing isolated severe hail. Given the weak forcing for
   ascent, storm longevity and overall evolution is uncertain.

   ..Weinman/Guyer.. 07/03/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF...

   LAT...LON   42229747 43049896 43489895 44059853 44239784 44049706
               43639595 43099519 42469511 42069558 41969661 42229747 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN