Mesoscale Discussion 1371
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026
Areas affected...parts of north central North Dakota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 290321Z - 290515Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong thunderstorm activity may continue to pose
a risk for severe hail, and perhaps a strong downburst before
weakening, while overspreading the region through Midnight-2 AM CDT.
DISCUSSION...While the warmest elevated mixed-layer air has been
suppressed a bit farther southeastward through the middle Missouri
Valley, Rapid Refresh output suggests that temperatures around the
700 mb level remain as warm as 10+ C along a corridor northeast of
the Black Hills through northeastern North Dakota. Associated
inhibition, coupled with the onset of boundary-layer cooling, has
contributed to rapid dissipation of earlier isolated storms within
this regime.
However, isolated strong thunderstorm development has persisted, and
even increased and intensified a bit, within the mid-level thermal
gradient to the northwest of the stronger capping. This appears
aided by forcing associated with weak warm advection accompanying a
subtle wave, which is forecast to continue slowly migrating toward
the international border area to the northwest of Devils Lake
through 05-07Z. As it does, the risk for severe hail may persist at
least a couple more hours. Thermodynamic dynamic profiles
characterized by steep mid-level lapse rates may also support a
strong downburst, before activity weakens and/or spreads across the
international border.
..Kerr/Thompson.. 06/29/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 48860017 48649914 47660040 47440095 47600142 48860017
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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